A short one from me today, the sun seems a little bit brighter, we have taken our first steps back towards normality and barista made coffee! (thank god…)! Today is the third day of Level 3 and it seems like the NZ workforce is very much getting back out in force.
Level 3 means that construction can start again, which is great. It is also a time that lenders will be watching very closely. The last 6 weeks have been very interesting in the lending space with most parties taking the ‘Wait, Watch and See’ approach which has been frustrating at times but understandable given the level of uncertainty. What today, and the next little while will give us is some more certainty over what the future looks like for NZ.
As I wrote last week, my pick is that the new normal won’t be all that removed from the old normal. Whilst there are undoubtedly going to be some redundancies and struggling businesses who have suffered through the lockdown, the level of government support introduced should go a long way to offsetting that.
What is also apparent to me is the amount of people who are rearing to go and really enthusiastic about getting back into moving forward and making stuff happen. Being couped up inside over the last 5 weeks is something that isn’t natural to almost all kiwi’s, this is the nation of the OE, we can’t even stay couped up in our own country let alone home! I expect to see most of us charging back into work with a vengeance and a real rebound of activity.
Pete and I have been working with many clients who have patiently and diligently been getting their ducks in a row to go again once lockdown allows and will be getting into developments, purchases and activity over the next fortnight. Many clients who are also part way through development and very excited about going again, completing those and heading onto the next one.
My pick is that we will be seeing a rebound of activity in the next 2 – 3 months which I hope will bring a positive outlook on the future. This is important as It should bring those lenders that have been on the sidelines back into the game. The risk that we face is that they or we stall and this reboot stutters instead of starting again. The flow of capital is key to this nation digging itself out of a hole and this can’t be solely financed by the government. My message is to look forward and be positive, the fundamentals haven’t changed for the worse – there has just been a pause.
Despite my comments above, there are still active lenders in the market and those who are keen to see the wheels of commerce continuing to turn, not everyone is on the sidelines.
If you have been waiting and watching give us a call, we are keen to get you going again.